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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 5, 2023 9:43:37 GMT -5
Copying and pasting a post from AGS from "crusader 11" with regards to the PL auto-bid which could end up being just as chaotic as the at-large bubble pending next week's results.
"All hell breaks loose in the league if Fordham beats Lafayette.
Heading into the final week of the season, the league standings could look like:
HC 4-1 Lafayette 3-2 Fordham 3-2 Colgate 3-2 (should they beat Lehigh) Georgetown 3-2 (should they beat Bucknell)
I’d have to look at how tiebreakers work, but seems like you could have five teams that have a shot at the PLC. Of course, HC would control their own destiny, but if Georgetown were to beat HC…"
So, looking at this, we should be rooting for Bucknell this Saturday since a Hoya loss would eliminate them from any hope of playing for a share of the title in the season finale. I don't even want to get into breaking down the forensics of the tie-breakers until we get through next week's results.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 5, 2023 10:00:45 GMT -5
mm67 Avatar 15 hours ago mm67 said: Lafayette will in all likelihood need to win out & they know it. The games against FU & Lehigh will be difficult tests. FU will be highly motivated to get an at-large bid. And, Lehigh? Heee, heee,,,The Pards could lose both games. The PL is beginning to show good competitive balance. Makes for a more interesting season. Hope it continues. Agree it is more competitive than we thought, but look how far it has dropped to get there. Perhaps what we are showing is the league is weak and competitive when key players and leaders are injured for the better teams. It shows the lack of depth compared to the power conferences in the FCS
I wonder who has the committee responsibility for promoting and defending the PL since Fordham leaves the room
For the purpose of consideration and figuring out tie breakers only
This could end in a four way tie for first place if Laffy loses to Fordham and we lose to Georgetown
Holy Cross Laffy Georgetown Fordham or Colgate winner
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 5, 2023 10:17:56 GMT -5
Are you deliberately TRYING to give me ulcers??? All I want to look at right now is HC vs Army.
BTW when I try to look at the "On Demand" tape of this week's games on ESPN+ all I get is the "wheel of death." Anyone else have a similar problem?
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 5, 2023 10:23:58 GMT -5
Are you deliberately TRYING to give me ulcers??? All I want to look at right now is HC vs Army. BTW when I try to look at the "On Demand" tape of this week's games on ESPN+ all I get is the "wheel of death." Anyone else have a similar problem? I had a similar experience. Shut everything off and tried a second time, at which point I connected.
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 5, 2023 10:34:18 GMT -5
Thanks for the help.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 5, 2023 15:44:41 GMT -5
x.com/redherringbets/status/1721222324039377247?s=12 from Red Herring’s post
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 5, 2023 17:16:07 GMT -5
x.com/redherringbets/status/1721222324039377247?s=12 from Red Herring’s post Reddit FCS reposted this also and they are talking about it on Reddit now. They give HC a higher shot at the autobid than Laffy. I wish I knew the math that goes into it. Still uphill but getting better. Beat Army
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 5, 2023 21:35:52 GMT -5
I love what SOV has done here but I think we can narrow this down a bit more. First off, no 7-4 team outside of the Big 4 conferences (MVC, Big Sky, CAA, So Con) have a shot at getting an at large bid with the possible exception of Gardner Webb and UCA. Here’s what have so far:
Big Sky: In or Likely in unless major upset 1) Montana State 2) Montana 3) Idaho
Play in game 11/18 Sac State at UC Davis. Sac State will def be the 4th team in with a win at 8-3. UC Davis would be 7-4 with a win and a decent shot on the bubble depending upon how MVC finishes out.
MVC: In/Likely in unless upset: There will be at least one 7-4 MVC get in, likely 2 and I wouldn’t rule out 3. 1) SDSU 2) USD
Next 5 teams (UNI, UND, NDSU, YSU, SIU) competing for 3-4 more MVC spots. Big games left. 11/11 UND at USD, SIU at NDSU (loser likely out), 11/18 UNI at NDSU
CAA: In/likely in unless upset 1) Albany 2) UD 3) Nova
I believe the driver seat for the 4th and likely final team in is the Elon at Richmond game this Saturday. URI is not in the convo at 7-4. William and Mary would have to have Richmond beat Elon this week and then beat Richmond on 11/18 to have even a slight bubble shot as the 4th team.
So Con: In/Likely 1) Furman 2)WCU
I think Chatty is on the bubble at 7-4 and needs Samford to upset Mercer to have a chance as the 3rd team from the So Con. Mercer should be in at 8-3 if they beat Samford this Saturday.
Big South/OVC: An interesting mess: Gardner Webb is in the driver’s seat as they have the most winnable likely 2 games to get the auto bid at 7-4 (7-2 vs FCS). SEMO at UT Martin is huge game this week b/c if SEMO wins they could steal a spot by winning the auto bid on a coin flip as SEMO and G-Webb didn’t play head to head this year. However, bubble teams are probably rooting for a coin flip because UT Martin is a guaranteed at large bid at 9-2 and conf runner up to G-Webb as they lost head to head. The winner of EIU and Tenn State this week stays alive as either will be squarely in the bubble at 8-3. 2 teams out of the Big Sky/OVC is my base case though.
UAC: Likley In Austin Peay
UCA needs to beat EKU this weekend to have a shot as they would then play Austin Peay for the title on 11/18. UCA would have a good shot as a 7-4 UAC runner-up with that schedule.
The Southland now threw the nation for a curve ball with Nicholls beating UIW and looks to steal an auto bid. Can UIW get in at 9-2 (8-1 v FCS)? They will be in the bubble conversation and may need help with their SOS and lack of a quality win.
Everyone else is HIGHLY likely a one bid league.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 5, 2023 21:39:52 GMT -5
If both HC and Laffy win this week then we will be able to narrow it substantially for HC bubble chances. However, since Fordham is probably 4X more likely to beat Laffy than we are Army, the highly most probabilistic chance for an HC post season is the PL auto-bid with a Laffy loss and HC win v G’Town.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 5, 2023 21:56:24 GMT -5
I agree that we can rule a bunch of these teams out already, Midwest. This is just another way to visually whittle the teams down further by officially eliminating them, and then really study resumes to eliminate further from there.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 7, 2023 9:12:08 GMT -5
Looking ahead to this weekend's games, the following teams need to win to stay "alive" for an at-large --
Illinois State (vs. Murray State)
William & Mary at Hampton (loser goes home, as both teams are 5-4)
Rhode Island (vs. North Carolina A&T)
Elon (at Richmond)
Gardner-Webb (at Tennessee Tech)
Abilene Christian (vs. Tarleton State)
Nicholls (vs. Lamar)
UC Davis (at Idaho State)
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 7, 2023 9:38:00 GMT -5
Some interesting notes from the "Week 11 Resumes" article. 3 current "seeds" in the top 10 do not have any "now ranked" wins: #7 NC Central, #8 Delaware, #9 Sac State. #10 UND has only one ranked win. Delaware and NC Central both have a "then ranked win" from earlier in the season but Sac State has 0. For Sac State, neither Cal Poly or UC Davis are currently ranked. There one cherry is the win over Stanford. NC Central has two more vs. unranked opponents. Delaware has the huge Villanova game in 2 weeks. herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-week-11-resumes-bzbz/
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 7, 2023 9:49:32 GMT -5
Looking ahead to this weekend's games, the following teams need to win to stay "alive" for an at-large -- Illinois State (vs. Murray State) William & Mary at Hampton (loser goes home, as both teams are 5-4) Rhode Island (vs. North Carolina A&T) Elon (at Richmond) Gardner-Webb (at Tennessee Tech) Abilene Christian (vs. Tarleton State) Nicholls (vs. Lamar) UC Davis (at Idaho State) I think you can add Holy Cross at Army. If we lose Saturday, a win over GU the following week won't get us an at-large, only an autobid if Laffy falters.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 7, 2023 10:01:42 GMT -5
Questions I have about a good Laffy team this week since they were just punched in the mouth
how do the players and coaches handle the added pressure, and do they play to win or not to lose
They have been able to play free and easy, they now need to perform with a target on their back
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 7, 2023 10:02:51 GMT -5
Looking ahead to this weekend's games, the following teams need to win to stay "alive" for an at-large -- Illinois State (vs. Murray State) William & Mary at Hampton (loser goes home, as both teams are 5-4) Rhode Island (vs. North Carolina A&T) Elon (at Richmond) Gardner-Webb (at Tennessee Tech) Abilene Christian (vs. Tarleton State) Nicholls (vs. Lamar) UC Davis (at Idaho State) I think you can add Holy Cross at Army. If we lose Saturday, a win over GU the following week won't get us an at-large, only an autobid if Laffy falters. We aren't doing resume analysis here. Just playoff eliminator. Unable to reach seven D1 wins = bye bye.
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 7, 2023 14:13:00 GMT -5
Not trying to build a resume either. Your post listed teams that needed to win or being eliminated from an at large consideration.
My response was that we HAVE to beat Army or WE will be eliminated for an at large spot and can only get in as an auto bid which depends on another team (Lafayette) losing, no matter what we do the last game.
Putting semantics aside, I think we are in total agreement, right?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 7, 2023 14:24:08 GMT -5
Not trying to build a resume either. Your post listed teams that needed to win or being eliminated from an at large consideration. My response was that we HAVE to beat Army or WE will be eliminated for an at large spot and can only get in as an auto bid which depends on another team (Lafayette) losing, no matter what we do the last game. Putting semantics aside, I think we are in total agreement, right? We are not in agreement because we are looking at this differently. My post is all about listing teams that are still able to reach seven Division 1 wins and then eliminating them when they are unable to reach this mark. At 7-4 with seven Division 1 wins, we won't be eliminated. Reaching seven Division 1 wins is a baseline. It's the one universal metric that is needed for a team to be considered for an at-large bid. What I am doing here is taking teams off the board one by one who fail to reach seven Division 1 wins. While we almost assuredly have no chance at receiving an at-large with a 7-4 record, we will still be listed as a team under consideration in the eyes of the committee.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 7, 2023 17:06:50 GMT -5
Looking ahead to this weekend's games, the following teams need to win to stay "alive" for an at-large -- Illinois State (vs. Murray State) William & Mary at Hampton (loser goes home, as both teams are 5-4) Rhode Island (vs. North Carolina A&T) Elon (at Richmond) Gardner-Webb (at Tennessee Tech) Abilene Christian (vs. Tarleton State) Nicholls (vs. Lamar) UC Davis (at Idaho State) If Nicholls beats Lamar they will clinch the Southland auto bid with only 6 D1 wins. The polarization around UIW getting an at large bid out of a down Southland conference with a 7-2 D1 record (9-2 overall with a forfeit and NAIA win) will be insane
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 7, 2023 21:42:07 GMT -5
Will the folks that are very bullish on an 8-3 playoff bid help me get there cause I’m still stuck at 50/50. Here’s what I have so far as a base case assuming no crazy upsets either way. Records for teams on the bubble but in.
Big Sky - 4 1) Montana 2) Idaho 3) MT State 4) Sac State (8-3)
Big South / OVC - 2 1) G-Webb (auto bid) 2) UT Martin (9-2)
CAA - 4 1) Albany 2) UD 3) Delaware 4) Elon/Richmond winner this Saturday should win on 11/18. Elon would claim a share of CAA title and would be in with possible auto bid at 7-1 in CAA. Richmond would be 8-3 with win.
MVC - 5 1) SDSU 2) USD 3/4/5 - UNI, UND, YSU, NDSU, SIU - Everything I’ve read has the MVC as at least a 5 bid league this year. The debate is on whether they are a 6 bid league and it’s fairly evenly split. But let’s give them the fewer 5 for now.
So Con - 3 1) Furman 2) WCU 3) Mercer (8-3)
UAC - 1 1) Austin Peay
Southland - 1 1) Nicholls Pioneer - 1 1) Davidson
Patriot - 1 1) Lafayette
NEC - 1 1) Duquesne
So that’s 23. Final spot bubble: Holy Cross 8-3, the 6th MVC team at 7-4 and 5-3 in MVC. UIW 9-2 (7-1 v FCS), Chattanooga 7-4 (7-3 v FCS), EIU 8-3.
So that’s a pretty thin window and why I keep coming back to around 50/50. You might say “well the CAA could eat itself and only get 3 (Richmond beats Elon then W&M beats Richmond etc) but on the flip side I’m not accounting for SEMO or UCA stealing auto bids by winning out. Or should Howard upset NC Central and win the SWAC, Central will be a 9-2 at large, etc.
So again, I think 23 spots are fairly certain at this point, things could break a bit either way but should even out close to that number before an 8-3 HC enters the conversation.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 7, 2023 21:50:24 GMT -5
Will the folks that are very bullish on an 8-3 playoff bid help me get there cause I’m still stuck at 50/50. Here’s what I have so far as a base case assuming no crazy upsets either way. Records for teams on the bubble but in. Big Sky - 4 1) Montana 2) Idaho 3) MT State 4) Sac State (8-3) Big South / OVC - 2 1) G-Webb (auto bid) 2) UT Martin (9-2) CAA - 4 1) Albany 2) UD 3) Delaware 4) Elon/Richmond winner should win on 11/18. Elon would claim a share of CAA title and would be in with possible auto bid at 7-1 in CAA. Richmond would be 8-3 with win. MVC - 5 1) SDSU 2) USD 3/4/5 - UNI, UND, YSU, NDSU, SIU - Everything I’ve read has the MVC as at least a 5 bid league this year. The debate is on whether they are a 6 bid league and it’s fairly evenly split. But let’s give them the fewer 5 for now. So Con - 3 1) Furman 2) WCU 3) Mercer (8-3) UAC - 1 1) Austin Peay Southland - 1 1) Nicholls Pioneer - 1 1) Davidson Patriot - 1 1) Lafayette NEC - 1 1) Duquesne So that’s 23. Final spot bubble: Holy Cross 8-3, the 6th MVC team at 7-4 and 5-3 in MVC. UIW 9-2 (7-1 v FCS), Chattanooga 7-4 (7-3 v FCS), EIU 8-3. So that’s a pretty thin window and why I keep coming back to around 50/50. You might say “well the CAA could eat itself and only get 3 (Richmond beats Elon then W&M beats Richmond etc) but on the flip side I’m not accounting for SEMO or UCA stealing auto bids by winning out. Or should Howard upset NC Central and win the SWAC, Central will be a 9-2 at large, etc. So again, I think 23 spots are fairly certain at this point, things could break a bit either way but should even out close to that number before HC enters the conversation. of those listed in the bubble, I do (without purple glasses) believe HC has the strongest resume at 8-3. I can see the CAA as a 3 bid league. MVFC could be 4 or 5. The NDSU-SIU game will be interesting. I think if NDSU wins out they are in and SIU is out. I wonder if SIU wins if they take Youngstown and SIU with the Bison staying home. Then again YSU has SDSU so that won't end well for the Penguins. I can realistically see only 4 Valley teams.
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 7, 2023 21:59:42 GMT -5
After reading all these analyses, I am heading to the conclusion that we should just cancel the remaining two games and all go home.🤷♂️
Fortunately I believe our coaches and players have the attitude that they will give their best effort and try to control the things they can control and let the things they have no control over play out however that works out. Kind of like the Serenity Prayer.
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference.
I’ve put more than my two cents into this discussion. I’m tapping out.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 7, 2023 22:02:08 GMT -5
After reading all these analyses, I am heading to the conclusion that we should just cancel the remaining two games and all go home.🤷♂️ Fortunately I believe our coaches and players have the attitude that they will give their best effort and try to control the things they can control and let the things they have no control over play out however that works out. Kind of like the Serenity Prayer. God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference. I’ve put more than my two cents into this discussion. I’m tapping out. no one said this is for the players, this is for FCS football fans nerding out just as college basketball fans do every March. The players and staff are doing exactly what you described above. And hence why I moved back to this thread instead of the army game.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 7, 2023 22:05:24 GMT -5
Nice breakdown, Midwest.
I think the Big Sky and Valley are good for a combined nine teams for certain. It wouldn’t shock me in the least if the Valley gets a sixth. All depends on the last couple of weeks.
I’m actually a bit nervous of the SoCon getting a fourth. Chattanooga is a legitimately good football team, even at 7-4. We know there will be a couple 7-4 Valley teams that make it, and I think Chattanooga is in that discussion alongside them.
The one league I disagree with you on is the CAA. I think this is no more than a three bid league. Even if Richmond wins out to get to 8-3, they have two ugly losses against Morgan St and Hampton. Let’s assume Villanova finishes 8-3 (would need to lose to UD), I’m not even sure their resume is all that impressive (weak OOC wins over Lehigh, Colgate, blown out against Albany). The CAA has been down the last few years. Typically, you get to eight wins in this league and you’re a lock for the playoffs, but I’m not so sure about that anymore.
UT Martin is another big wild card. We want them to win their league. If they don’t but win out, would be hard to leave them out at 9-2. They haven’t exactly played murder’s row this season and still have SEMO and Samford left (two tough games). They haven’t been playing well of late and could very easily see them dropping one. 8-3 HC is better than 8-3 UTM, IMO.
I’d be hesitant to say 23 spots are reserved just yet.
Still a lot to be sorted through and we will learn more this weekend.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 12, 2023 9:27:47 GMT -5
Because I'm a sicko, you better believe I'm seeing this through.
The following teams were eliminated yesterday:
Hampton Tennessee State Elon Duquesne
The following teams are still able to reach seven Division 1 wins. Those who are not listed here will not be able to receive an at-large bid.
Big Sky
Montana Idaho Montana State Sacramento State UC Davis
Big South / OVC
UT Martin Gardner-Webb Eastern Illinois
CAA
Delaware Richmond Villanova Albany William & Mary Rhode Island
Missouri Valley
South Dakota State South Dakota Northern Iowa Southern Illinois North Dakota State North Dakota Youngstown State Illinois State
Patriot
Lafayette Fordham Holy Cross
Pioneer
Davidson Drake
Southern
Furman Chattanooga Mercer Western Carolina
Southland
Incarnate Word Nicholls
UAC
Austin Peay Central Arkansas
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Post by efg72 on Nov 12, 2023 13:14:34 GMT -5
FCS Playoff Committee Kent Haslam (Big Sky, chair) Mark Benson (CAA) Brian Hardin (PFL) Gerald Harrison (UAC) Ed Kull (Patriot) Matt Larsen (MVFC) Tom Michael (Big South-OVC) Steve Moniaci (Southland) Tom Pincince (NEC) Mark Wharton (SoCon) Pairings: 12:30 p.m. ET, Nov 19 (ESPNU)
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