|
|
Post by sader1970 on Feb 10, 2019 20:02:31 GMT -5
Don't know if this is cause or effect but Caleb has averaged 30.2 minutes over the last 5 games compared to 35.0 minutes in the first 5 games of the season. So, he's getting less floor time than earlier in the season. Is Carmody trying to keep him rested; wants to get more players in; not happy with his play? Suspect it is more the first two.
|
|
|
|
Post by jkh67 on Feb 10, 2019 21:33:56 GMT -5
Even for the small group of posters who seem to feel the PLTC in 2016 gives this staff a pass for the half-life of strontium-90, there has to be a point at which even they think a change might be in order. One poster has said 15 wins is ok with him - if we end up 15-17 (6-12), which is a distinct possibility, is that really ok? Does HC give Carmody a two year extension? A brand new five-year contract? Do nothing and let the program twist in the wind next season, the final year of his current contract? What with no AD in place at this point and with the right change at the top of the program a pressing necessity after three consecutive head coach failures, I see no option but to retain Carmody next year. The situation would likely be chaotic otherwise. Long term, we need a coach like Chesney for basketball...primarily someone who can recruit good players, relate to young guys, generate a winning attitude, etc. You can talk all you want about coaching strategy, tactics, etc., but if you don't have quality players, you will not have quality results. With all respect to the guys playing today...and I have no doubt they're fine individuals doing their damnedest out on the hardwood...we don't have the kind of players we need to be successful. The results speak for themselves at this point, do they not!?! Hope the College will spend the time and resources needed to find the right individual to revitalize HC basketball. That being said, if current students and more recent alumni than this old fossil don't care about HC b'ball, maybe it's time to fold the tent and spend all that money on other things! |
|
|
|
Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Feb 10, 2019 22:12:56 GMT -5
I like the players on this team. Better days lie ahead.
|
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Feb 10, 2019 22:34:50 GMT -5
While disappointment is shared by all, or most all posting on the board, I can’t stress enough the value of having experienced seniors that are leaders on the team. This roster, from seniors down, hasn’t had the benefit of being in a program that reloads. Imho the truly successful mid majors have senior experience and leadership on the floor and that is why Bucknell, Davidson, Lehigh and a handful of others lead their conferences each season.
Better days are ahead as the kids continue to grow and learn how to win. The projection of 17-19 remains possible even if it takes place during the tournament
|
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Feb 11, 2019 0:53:52 GMT -5
Even for the small group of posters who seem to feel the PLTC in 2016 gives this staff a pass for the half-life of strontium-90, there has to be a point at which even they think a change might be in order. One poster has said 15 wins is ok with him - if we end up 15-17 (6-12), which is a distinct possibility, is that really ok? Does HC give Carmody a two year extension? A brand new five-year contract? Do nothing and let the program twist in the wind next season, the final year of his current contract? |
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Feb 11, 2019 0:59:19 GMT -5
I googled for all the other non-STEM majors. The half life of strontium-90 is 28.8 years. I think a coaching staff should at least get to the Sweet Sixteen to get that long a honeymoon.😉
|
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Feb 11, 2019 6:32:47 GMT -5
Thank you for researching the half life as it is much shorter than the 500 years I would have guessed.😉
|
|
|
|
Post by Non Alum Dave on Feb 11, 2019 6:43:23 GMT -5
In December alone the team overcame 9-10 point second half deficits against UMass, Canisius, and Siena (who by the way is quietly coming along strong). Are we to believe Lafayette is superior to those 3 teams? What is different now?
Looking at statistical splits between juniors and seniors against freshmen and sophomores amongst the PL teams is pretty interesting, by the way.
|
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 11, 2019 7:57:24 GMT -5
Looking at statistical splits between juniors and seniors against freshmen and sophomores amongst the PL teams is pretty interesting, by the way. Haven't looked at this split, but Colgate, American, BU, Loyola, and Lafayette will have almost everybody of consequence back next season. And Bucknell has shown the ability to reload and compete for championships, year after year, regardless of who they lose.
The "wait 'til next year" crowd shouldn't assume we're going to be a first-division team next year, much less a championship caliber one. That may turn out to be the case, but we all need to remember that other teams have good players and coaches. . . .
|
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 11, 2019 8:02:05 GMT -5
Lafayette beat us yesterday with a more “youthful” team.
|
|
letsgohc
Climbing Mt. St. James
Posts: 80 
|
Post by letsgohc on Feb 11, 2019 9:56:03 GMT -5
Lafayette beat us yesterday with a more “youthful” team. Disagree. While I am firm believer of win as a team, lose as a team. Lafayette had lady luck (BS foul on JF with less than 5 seconds) and a better coach on their side. We had the better players. |
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 11, 2019 10:10:53 GMT -5
Looking at statistical splits between juniors and seniors against freshmen and sophomores amongst the PL teams is pretty interesting, by the way. Haven't looked at this split, but Colgate, American, BU, Loyola, and Lafayette will have almost everybody of consequence back next season. And Bucknell has shown the ability to reload and compete for championships, year after year, regardless of who they lose.
The "wait 'til next year" crowd shouldn't assume we're going to be a first-division team next year, much less a championship caliber one. That may turn out to be the case, but we all need to remember that other teams have good players and coaches. . . .
It is also a bit of a stretch to just assume the current Freshmen & Sophomores will make some sort of big leap in the Junior & Senior years. While Floyd has developed his game (but is still totally under utilized in Carmody's stubborn system), Zignorski played more as a Freshmen than he is as a Senior, Le Seann has shown no diversification in his game other than being a streaky shooter, Benzan was passed over by an underclassman, and even worse, the miscreants who couldn't even remain on the team for four years. There are far more examples of players who did not develop over the course careers than the one guy who did (Floyd). Bringing back Carmody on the final year of his contract after has won under 45% of his games over four years at HC with our fingers crossed that this group of underclassmen will magically reverse the 17-year trend of 13+ loss seasons is not exactly a wise decision given what he has shown at HC so far. |
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 11, 2019 10:26:01 GMT -5
Took a quick check at Freshmen & Sophomores across the pL using KenPom as a statistical guide.
With %Minutes cutoff at 40%, HC only has 2 of the top 15 guys for Offensive Rating -- Grandison #9, Green #11.
The purple-shaded vision that this group of HC underclassmen is significantly better than the talent other teams are bringing in is not accurate.
|
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 11, 2019 10:59:41 GMT -5
Very interesting, Bring Back. I would be interested to know what the numbers look like just for PL competition.
|
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 11, 2019 11:35:07 GMT -5
Answered my own question. These are the top 15 Fr and So in PL games only who have played 40.0%+ minutes.
Justin Jaworski (Lafayette, So) - 123.5
Jeameril Wilson (Lehigh, Fr) - 114.2
Stacy Beckton (American, So) - 112.2
Rapolas Ivanauskas (Colgate, So) - 112.0
Jack Ferguson (Colgate, So) - 111.2
James Karnik (Lehigh, So) - 109.3
Jordan Burns (Colgate, So) - 108.9
Alex Petrie (Lafayette, So) - 108.3
Javante McCoy (BU, So) 108.0
Alex Vilarino (Bu, Fr) - 107.7
Jaylin Andrews (Loyola, Fr) - 107.6
Austin Butler (HC, So) - 107.0
Sam Iorio (American, So) - 106.7
Tucker Richardson (Colgate, Fr) - 104.9
Jimmy Sotos (Bucknell, So) - 100.1
I imagine Sotos would be higher on this list had he not had a shoulder injury.
|
|
|
|
Post by Non Alum Dave on Feb 11, 2019 11:49:07 GMT -5
The purple-shaded vision that this group of HC underclassmen is significantly better than the talent other teams are bringing in is not accurate. Who is saying that? I know I'm not. |
|
|
|
Post by possum on Feb 11, 2019 13:44:29 GMT -5
Wow that's a sobering list only one of our guys makes top 15 shows how badly things have gone in conference play and how much young talent there is in the league.
|
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 11, 2019 13:55:06 GMT -5
Based on the list above, which only is inclusive of underclassmen, it looks like Floyd will be the only one who makes an All-League team. Obviously, things can change a lot over the next six games.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Feb 11, 2019 14:43:14 GMT -5
To the posters who list all the statistical bs, it has been scientifically proven that 87.3% of all statistics are completely unreliable.
|
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 11, 2019 14:45:48 GMT -5
Now through the halfway point in PL play of his 4th year, Carmody's teams are 8-24 (.250) in PL regular season road games. Those 8 wins are against teams with an average PL rank of 7.5, and an average PL winning% of .361. He has yet to win a regular season road game against a team ranked in the top 4 ( 0-14), and has won only one game against a team in the top 5 ( 1-15). To complete these stats with home games included: vs top 4: 4-24 ( .143) vs top 5: 6-27 ( .182) vs top 6: 9-29 ( .237) Refreshing Carmody's 4-year PL records from after the BU game a couple weeks ago: Road
Overall: 8-26 (.235)vs top 4: 0-14 (.000)vs top 5: 1-16 (.059)vs top 6: 2-18 (.100)Home + Road
Overall: 26-40 (.394)vs top 4: 4-23 (.148)vs top 5: 7-26 (.212)vs top 6: 10-29 (.256)With 5 of the final 6 games against the top 4 teams in the current PL standings, past results suggest an ugly end to the regular season and trip to the PL PIG. PL RecordsBrown: 40-38 ( .513) Carmody: 26-40 ( .394) Kearney: 5-9 ( .357) |
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 11, 2019 14:55:34 GMT -5
One more loss and that will guarantee that for the 17th straight season Carmody has been a head coach, he has failed to have better than a .500 league record. He will be 0-4 at HC and 0-13 at Northwestern.
Last time he had a winning league record was when Chris Young was captaining Princeton.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Feb 11, 2019 21:37:07 GMT -5
One more loss and that will guarantee that for the 17th straight season Carmody has been a head coach, he has failed to have better than a .500 league record. He will be 0-4 at HC and 0-13 at Northwestern. Last time he had a winning league record was when Chris Young was captaining Princeton. Northwestern in the Big 10 was akin to Columbia in the Ivy League. Always one of the weaker teams. |
|
|
|
Post by trimster on Feb 12, 2019 8:23:46 GMT -5
I thought Coach Carmody's years at Northwestern were for the most part, pretty decent given their basketball history. As others have pointed out, for years they were the Rice of the old SW Conference, the Vanderbilt of the Sec, etc. Tough places to win. Unfortunately, his years at HC have been disappointing. I am hoping next year's frosh make an immediate impact and play a big part in getting things turned around.
|
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Feb 12, 2019 8:25:55 GMT -5
Well put, trimster. Positive (and realistic) hope.
|
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Feb 12, 2019 9:05:48 GMT -5
Personally while I am happy we appear to be getting some quality guards, to bring back the ghost of HC70, I would much rather be bringing in a 6’12” true center that might be able to rebound though I know that does not seem to be a priority for this coaching staff.
|
|
