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Post by efg72 on Aug 4, 2021 21:37:57 GMT -5
Why Delta Is Shifting the Herd Immunity Goal Posts: QuickTake By Jason Gale / August 4, 2021 10:19PM ET / Bloomberg Government Many countries are counting on vaccines to build sufficient immunity in their populations so that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, isn’t able to find enough people to infect, causing transmission to eventually stop. But even in countries with a high proportion of people inoculated with highly effective vaccines, it’s unclear whether it’s possible to reach the so-called herd immunity threshold anytime soon. Researchers warn that the virus is apt to be circulating among us for a long time, although it’s likely to become a less potent foe. 1. Can Covid be eradicated? No. So far, only one human disease -- smallpox -- has been officially eradicated; that is, reduced to zero cases and kept there long-term without continual countermeasures. That was thanks to a good vaccine plus the fact that humans are the only mammals naturally susceptible to infection with the smallpox virus. By contrast, many species are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, including bats, minks, cats and gorillas. The next best thing would be what’s known as disease elimination. That’s when there are zero new cases in a defined area over a sustained period, such as 28 days. Some countries, such as New Zealand, have achieved zero new cases for lengthy periods using lockdowns, diligent case detection and isolation, and border closures. But keeping this up over the long run is challenging as the emergence of more-infectious variants leads to even stricter public health and social measures, while people hunger for a return to normal life. bloom.bg/2Vf3YLk (Source: Quicktake) When will the Covid-19 pandemic end and what role do vaccines and masks play?Dr. Harvey Fineberg, president of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, gives a Covid-weary world a distressing reality check 2. Will vaccines eliminate Covid-19? There’s considerable uncertainty about that. One scientific paper calculated that if a vaccine could provide a lifelong, fail-safe shield against infection with SARS-CoV-2, it would need to reach 60% to 72% of people to establish herd immunity. But if a vaccine is only 80% effective at preventing any infection, 75% to 90% of people would need to be immunized -- a high bar. The Covid vaccines in use today have been shown to offer 50% to 97% protection against becoming sick, but it’s mostly unknown how well they prevent people from getting an infection without symptoms that could still be passed on. The rapidly spreading delta variant, which is about twice as infectious as the original strain, is weakening vaccine effectiveness too. Another question is the duration of protection. The shorter it turns out to be, the higher the rates of immunization required to establish herd immunity. An unpublished study by Pfizer Inc. researchers that followed vaccinated individuals for as many as six months reported a gradually declining trend in vaccine efficacy against a symptomatic infection, but found their shot remained “highly efficacious” overall. Vaccines might not have to do all the work to get there: Some people who’ve already had the virus will be immunized against it, although not as well as those who’ve been inoculated. 3. How do variants of the virus factor in? The more the coronavirus circulates, the more opportunity it has to mutate in ways that enhance its ability to evade the immunity people have gained. Over the past year, such variants have spread internationally, leading to new surges in cases and hospitalizations. Studies from the U.K. have shown delta, discovered in India in October, is more resistant to vaccines than the alpha variant that emerged in England in late 2020, particularly in people who have received just the first of two doses. Again, that means a higher proportion of people in the community will have to be immunized to reach herd immunity. Scientists say the vaccines should still work at stopping severe disease in the vast majority of cases, but some shots may be less effective at protecting against mild infections. Inoculations may need to be updated periodically to maintain their efficacy, and several countries plan to roll out additional or “booster” shots, though the World Health Organization called for a moratorium on them until at least the end of September to enable poorer countries to catch up in vaccination rates. 4. Why is delta especially problematic? Vaccines have been shown to reduce the concentration of virus particles, or viral loads, in the airways of individuals who become infected, lowering the probability of them transmitting their infection to others. Delta, though, is associated with viral loads that are more than 1,200 times higher in newly infected individuals compared with the original coronavirus strain -- a feature that helps delta spread as easily as chickenpox. Worryingly, health officials in a county in Wisconsin in which more than two-thirds of the population is fully vaccinated and delta is the predominant strain, found no difference in viral load regardless of whether the infected person was inoculated. That may help explain a dramatic outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts, in mid-to-late July, in which about three-quarters of the 469 Covid cases detected occurred in fully vaccinated people. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently recommended people return to wearing masks indoors in some situations. It considers delta more prone to breaking through vaccine-induced immunity and says it may cause more severe disease than all other forms of the virus, the New York Times reported in late July. bloom.bg/3zAaCL7 (Source: Quicktake) “The evidence suggests it’s extraordinarily contagious.”What makes delta the most disruptive variant of Covid-19? The University of Sydney’s professor Christine Jenkins explains 5. Do Covid vaccines have to prevent infection to curb cases? No. Vaccines don’t have to be perfect to have a public health benefit. New Zealand vaccinologist Helen Petousis-Harris points to rotavirus and chickenpox as examples of diseases that have been “virtually eliminated using vaccines that are very good at preventing severe disease, quite good at preventing any disease, but that do not completely prevent infection in everyone.” It’s anticipated that newer-generation vaccines will be even better at preventing onward transmission. In the meantime, Mike Ryan, head of the WHO’s emergencies program, suggests that rather than focusing on elimination, success should be seen as “reducing the c apacity of this virus to kill, to put people in hospital, to destroy our economic and social lives.” 6. What if Covid isn’t eliminated? In a poll of more than 100 scientists conducted by the journal Nature in January, nearly 90% said they expected SARS-CoV-2 to become endemic. Viruses that are endemic continuously circulate in the community, often causing periodic spikes when conditions favor transmission. Examples include norovirus, the notorious cause of gastroenteritis on cruise ships, and the myriad of viruses, including four coronaviruses, that cause the common cold. 7. What might the implications be? People who have survived Covid and those vaccinated against it will probably have some degree of immunity for some time. U.K. researchers says it’s possible that, as immunity gradually wanes, more vaccinated individuals will get infected, but their immune system will rapidly control the infection, resulting in no or mild symptoms. However, exposure to the virus will further boost and broaden their immune response to it. In the absence of herd immunity, the virus will continue to find those who don’t have protection. That will mean people who don’t get vaccinated -- or can’t because their immune systems are compromised, or they have allergies to vaccine ingredients, or are too young -- will remain vulnerable. Some scientists have predicted that, once the endemic phase is reached, then primary exposure to the virus will occur in childhood, when the infection mostly causes mild or no disease. At that point, Covid may be regarded much like the common cold. The Reference Shelf Sam Fazeli with Bloomberg Intelligence talks about herd immunity. The University of New South Wales’ Anita Heywood and Raina MacIntyre explain disease eradication, elimination, and suppression, and what elimination of Covid-19 would look like. MacIntyre also presents principles of vaccine programs for Covid-19 control. Harvard University on vaccines and herd immunity. Related QuickTakes on coronavirus variants, including delta, vaccine nationalism, Covid vaccine reactions, breakthrough infections, mRNA vaccines, vaccine hesitancy and how well Covid shots are working.
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Post by bfoley82 on Aug 4, 2021 22:32:52 GMT -5
What Fordham's policy looks like today (in part): As of Monday, August 2, the University requires all unvaccinated individuals to wear masks indoors, and in any public space on campus. The University recommends fully vaccinated individuals wear masks indoors while on campus. The University will continue its policy of admitting only faculty, students, and staff at indoor gatherings, events, performances and meetings through the fall semester. Alumni, parents, and their guests may attend outdoor events with proof of vaccination. (So no alumni etc..fans at their nov-dec basketball games) Assumption isn't allowing fans into games in September.... assumption.prestosports.com/sports/fball/2021-22/schedule
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Post by alum on Aug 5, 2021 7:58:57 GMT -5
ICYMI From a few days ago. With all due respect to our fellow Crusader, his points raised here are not groundbreaking. Many medical professionals have been talking about this topic for well over a year and treating many of our fellow citizens with tremendous rates of success via the us e of selected meds already in the marketplace having been developed decades ago. Which ones?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Aug 5, 2021 8:31:30 GMT -5
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Aug 5, 2021 8:45:43 GMT -5
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 5, 2021 9:01:13 GMT -5
Outstanding opinion piece.
While this should not be a political issue, too many politicians have made it so. Kay Ivey, governor of Alabama, who is hardly some flaming liberal, pretty much summed up the frustration of so many. Asa Hutchinson, governor of Arkansas, now regrets some of his actions that he's looking to reverse.
Operation Warp Speed is one of the very few things that the Trump administration should get kudos for but then the leadership there undermined so much of the benefit of that program. If the former POTUS came out and emphasized publicly that he and his family were all vaccinated and it is safe and effective, it'd go a long way to get many hesitators to get the jab.
I'm not holding my breath.
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Post by Ray on Aug 5, 2021 9:13:49 GMT -5
ICYMI From a few days ago. With all due respect to our fellow Crusader, his points raised here are not groundbreaking. Many medical professionals have been talking about this topic for well over a year and treating many of our fellow citizens with tremendous rates of success via the use of selected meds already in the marketplace having been developed decades ago. But Fauci's talking about something theoretical, something that doesn't exist yet. His last statement, "What I want is.... give me that, and I'll be really happy." makes that completely clear. But you're describing this as if he's talking about something that already exists, that doctors are already using today (presumably as an alternative to the vaccine that you are so ardently opposed to).
BUT IT DOESN'T EXIST (YET).
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Post by timholycross on Aug 5, 2021 9:25:28 GMT -5
Outstanding opinion piece. While this should not be a political issue, too many politicians have made it so. Kay Ivey, governor of Alabama, who is hardly some flaming liberal, pretty much summed up the frustration of so many. Asa Hutchinson, governor of Arkansas, now regrets some of his actions that he's looking to reverse. Operation Warp Speed is one of the very few things that the Trump administration should get kudos for but then the leadership there undermined so much of the benefit of that program. If the former POTUS came out and emphasized publicly that he and his family were all vaccinated and it is safe and effective, it'd go a long way to get many hesitators to get the jab. I'm not holding my breath. Azar usually came across well in the briefings during 2020. Not surprising he'd write something that would make sense to most people. I agree Trump should have made his vaccination status more public. On the other hand, it doesn't seem that a person would have to go out of his/her way to know that.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Aug 5, 2021 11:48:32 GMT -5
ICYMI From a few days ago. With all due respect to our fellow Crusader, his points raised here are not groundbreaking. Many medical professionals have been talking about this topic for well over a year and treating many of our fellow citizens with tremendous rates of success via the use of selected meds already in the marketplace having been developed decades ago. But Fauci's talking about something theoretical, something that doesn't exist yet. His last statement, "What I want is.... give me that, and I'll be really happy." makes that completely clear. But you're describing this as if he's talking about something that already exists, that doctors are already using today (presumably as an alternative to the vaccine that you are so ardently opposed to).
BUT IT DOESN'T EXIST (YET). It exists -- actually there is more than one -- and I think Fauci has learned of early results from clinical trials of one, or several. Fauci, in June, on a single pill. www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/health/covid-pill-antiviral.htmlPfizer's, 'maybe by year's end. www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/pfizer-at-home-covid-pill-could-be-available-by-year-end-ceo-albert-bourla-says.htmlRoche, in Phase 3 clinical trials www.biopharmadive.com/news/roche-atea-covid-pill-data/602642/Merck www.news-medical.net/news/20210627/An-oral-pill-for-COVID19-Molnupiravir-shows-promise.aspxTempol, in a combined Phase 2/3 clinical trial www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ADAMIS-PHARMACEUTICALS-CO-15227729/news/Adamis-Pharmaceuticals-Highlights-National-Institute-of-Health-Study-Identifying-Tempol-as-a-Poten-35537057/
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Post by Ray on Aug 5, 2021 14:27:12 GMT -5
Fine, I wrote "doesn't exist" when I should have said "not yet publicly available". Flog me as you wish.
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Post by timholycross on Aug 5, 2021 14:29:40 GMT -5
I plan on being on the soccer field this season- mask or no mask, whatever is requested of me. Dr. Fauci and his scientists have given no indication that I should do otherwise.
Just hope the MIAA doesn't reinstate their stupid Covid game rules. They sucked (no heading, no throw-ins, minimal contact) and the club teams that ran regular rules (w/masks on) concurrently with the MIAA had no problems whatsoever; and the season was pre-vaccination.
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Post by bfoley82 on Aug 5, 2021 14:52:32 GMT -5
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Post by longsuffering on Aug 5, 2021 19:34:17 GMT -5
I plan on being on the soccer field this season- mask or no mask, whatever is requested of me. Dr. Fauci and his scientists have given no indication that I should do otherwise. Just hope the MIAA doesn't reinstate their stupid Covid game rules. They sucked (no heading, no throw-ins, minimal contact) and the club teams that ran regular rules (w/masks on) concurrently with the MIAA had no problems whatsoever; and the season was pre-vaccination. How do you blow a whistle through a mask?
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Post by bfoley82 on Aug 6, 2021 1:35:17 GMT -5
I plan on being on the soccer field this season- mask or no mask, whatever is requested of me. Dr. Fauci and his scientists have given no indication that I should do otherwise. Just hope the MIAA doesn't reinstate their stupid Covid game rules. They sucked (no heading, no throw-ins, minimal contact) and the club teams that ran regular rules (w/masks on) concurrently with the MIAA had no problems whatsoever; and the season was pre-vaccination. How do you blow a whistle through a mask? I saw electronic whistles on the college circuit for Field Hockey and Soccer in the spring.
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Post by timholycross on Aug 6, 2021 6:54:25 GMT -5
Yes, electronic whistles were used last year. In the spring, when the masks came off, they still wanted us to use them. Don't think that's the case right now, but we all have the whistles in case we have to mask up.
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Post by td128 on Aug 6, 2021 9:05:11 GMT -5
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Post by alum on Aug 6, 2021 10:14:34 GMT -5
Not being overcome by fear is important, but using common sense is even more crucial.
I imagine you have all heard the story of the man whose house is flooded. Various rescuers come by but he sends them all away because God is going to help him. Eventually, he drowns and when he reaches heaven he asks why God allowed him to drown. God tells him, "I sent you warnings about the storm, a guy in a boat and a helicopter. What the hell else was I supposed to do."
We have been sent millions of health care workers, thousands of scientists, smart public health leaders, and drug companies who have worked round the clock. They have brought us treatments, wise advice evolving as the pandemic has spread, and eventually effective vaccines.
To those in the United States who ask, "Why me, Lord?" when they are hospitalized with Covid, I think we know the answer.
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Post by Crucis#1 on Aug 6, 2021 12:30:00 GMT -5
This morning I visited my Dentist. While sitting in the chair, I had a conversation with the Dental Tech, who I have known for over 10 years. So, as part of our normal banter, I asked him his plans for the remainder of summer. He said he has cancelled his plans to visit his brother, sister in law and new born niece. I asked why, he said due to the Delta and possible Lambda variant spreading in Florida. I said that was understandable.
He then threw in the kicker, his brother is a nurse in an ER, in a hospital, in the Miami area, and is unvaccinated, as well as his sister in law. He is 36 years old, and is refusing to receive the vaccination, even as family and colleagues have strongly urged him to do so. Guess the Meme “ Tales of the Florida Man” has a new story every day. Glad I don’t live there.
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Post by rgs318 on Aug 6, 2021 13:14:24 GMT -5
You are not alone in that feeling. My brother-in-law shares bizarre stories from FL almost daily. Today Florida's governor aid he has instructed the state department of education to find ways to "punish" schools that make staff and children wear masks. It is a zoo at times in the sunshine state.
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 6, 2021 13:21:13 GMT -5
Not trying to be "my dog is bigger than your dog" but how's this following story (makes me question some in the medical profession):
So, I need an implant after cracking a tooth early last year as Covid is starting to make the news. My dentist says I need to go to the oral surgeon (whose wife is a also in the medical profession and an HC grad while the oral surgeon is an Assumption grad) to have it extracted. So, said oral surgeon extracts the tooth but before I can start the implant process Covid is in full swing and my PCP tells me "don't have any more dental work and no dental surgery until this pandemic gets under control." So, I cancel getting the implant. (My PCP's husband is also a doctor and her partner in family practice). She tells me that while she has had her vaccination, her doctor/husband won't do so because "he doesn't believe in vaccines" (I am counting my lucky stars I don't go to him while mine has been named numerous times as a "Top Doc" in Rhode Island).
Time marches on and Covid is on the run in RI and I have my 2 Moderna shots. I feel confident enough to go for a regular dental check-up and my dentist tells me that he caught Covid and has since been vaccinated. I go back to the oral surgeon who informs me that he also caught Covid and he wanted to make sure and got tested 4 times and each one was positive. He planned on getting his vaccinations within 30 days at the direction of his doctor.
I subsequently go back for a check-up to my PCP (she's the one whose daughter has applied to HC for ED and expects to hear in December) and since I've known her and her family for years (worked with her father) I politely say "did hubby ever get his vaccination?" She says "yes, I finally convinced him AFTER he caught Covid!"
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Post by timholycross on Aug 6, 2021 14:41:36 GMT -5
At least there's a legitimate debate about whether you need the vaccine once you got Covid and/or how long your immunity's good for. Some studies say get it, some say not.
But that's no excuse for a medical person not getting the vaccine back around the first of the year. Weren't they at the front of the line? A lot of people had to wait for them, and, often, needlessly.
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Post by sader1970 on Aug 6, 2021 14:51:06 GMT -5
They were first in line in RI and both dentist and oral surgeon were wearing "chin jocks." That pisses me off worse than not wearing a mask at all. I always am tempted to ask, "can I assume you don't breath through your nose?" BU basketball players specialize in chin jocks. As in "you can make me wear a mask but you can't make me wear it correctly."
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Post by longsuffering on Aug 6, 2021 15:23:06 GMT -5
An unvaccinated Dentist is a sitting duck. I had an echocardiogram yesterday. The Technician was wearing her wilted mask below the nose. I asked her to please cover her nose. She shot me a viscous glare and left the room. I wondered if she was going to get a 300 pound orderly to work me over, but she returned wearing a fresh mask that stayed up during the whole procedure.
I did think she pressed the instrument against my ribs a little harder than was necessary however.🤔
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Post by rgs318 on Aug 6, 2021 16:07:39 GMT -5
If you felt uncomfortable, you did the right thing.
NJ today announced that the governor now has ordered that all students and staff must wear masks in schools starting on day one.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 6, 2021 16:08:43 GMT -5
"viscous glare"--must have been something
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